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Young Voter Turnout, the DSA Ick Factor and the Texas Senate Race: Jim Pfaff on Rush to Reason | Oct 6, 2026

Published: October 6, 2026
Network: KLZ 560
Analysis: Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff

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John Rush opened the third hour of Rush to Reason on KLZ 560 on October 6, 2026, with a simple question for Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff: what’s new in D.C.? From there the conversation turned to whether young conservatives pulled toward the Massie, Tucker, Candace wing will cost Republicans in November. Pfaff’s answer rested on young voter turnout: many of those young people, he said, aren’t even going to show up on Election Day, and the turnout model is what matters. He also took on a D+15 generic-ballot claim, the DSA ick factor dogging Democrats from Michigan to New York City, and Ken Paxton’s Senate race against James Talarico in Texas.

Topics Covered

• 60 Retirements and a House Still in Play
• A D+15 Poll and Libertarians Rooting for Democrats
• The Massie, Tucker, Candace Wing and Young Conservatives
• Young Voter Turnout and the Turnout Model
• The DSA Ick Factor: El-Sayed, Rogers and Hasan Piker
• Paxton, Talarico and the Cruz–O’Rourke Precedent
• Key Takeaways

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60 Retirements and a House Still in Play

Asked what is new in Washington, Pfaff said: nothing. That’s the sad thing. But he named the opening in front of Republicans.

“With 60 members of Congress having retired or leaving for whatever reason, we have a chance for a fresh start if we can get enough new and good enough people coming in.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Rush answered that this is the big question, because Republicans face an uphill battle. Pfaff split the map in two. He is feeling pretty confident the Senate stays in Republican hands. The House is harder to read.

“Obviously if you put a gun to my head and I had to put money on it, I’d say Democrats would take control of the House. But honestly, I’m seeing the tide rising slowly up for Republicans to be able to keep the House, and I do not think it’s out of the question at all.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

A D+15 Poll and Libertarians Rooting for Democrats

Pfaff has been putting out content on X telling libertarians that if they are for limited government, they should stop supporting Democrats and stop being all hepped up about drugs, prostitution and porn. A libertarian who has been going back and forth with him answered with a poll showing Republicans 15 points down on the generic ballot. Pfaff said that is not even a true poll; the top end of the spectrum is about a 2-point difference.

The poll was not the real problem, in his telling. The problem is people in the conservative wing, maybe even the MAGA wing, and the libertarian wing saying Republicans are so bad they need to be kicked out.

“Don’t even call yourself conservative or even libertarian if you’re hoping for Democrats to win, because that’s not for limited government.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

At the end of the day, he said, people have to ask themselves whether they really want Democrats controlling Congress. His current feeling: when people have to pull the stinking lever and make the vote, it is going to be much better for Republicans than anyone is predicting right now.

The Massie, Tucker, Candace Wing and Young Conservatives

Rush’s co-host pressed harder. How much damage will the Massie, Tucker, Candace wing do this fall? He said he thinks it will be a lot. Pfaff said there is definitely some damage, of the sort he had just described, but not a lot. He also said where he stands: he is a doctrinaire libertarian, and he named Von Mises, Hayek and Friedman.

The co-host drew a line between Pfaff’s libertarianism and that wing. Pfaff, he said, is talking about limited government and libertarian economic ideals. With these people, it is more about simply hating Jews and hating Israel. Then he tied it to young conservatives: “Since so many young conservatives have been leaning that way, it takes away a lot of our youth movement. It takes away a lot of our drive.”

The co-host said he is worried about two things this fall. First, inflation and the price of oil, which he called the biggest problem, stemming from a war that is going too long. Second, that wing does not support the war against Iran, because, in his words, they don’t hate Iran, they hate Israel. Pfaff’s reply went straight to young voter turnout.

Young Voter Turnout and the Turnout Model

“You have to also, though, look at turnout,” Pfaff said. There is some damage from that wing, he said to finish his answer, but not as extensive as people think, because folks have to make a decision on Election Day. On young voter turnout, his point was plain.

“Young people generally don’t tend to come out to elections, and they particularly don’t come out at elections like this one. I grant that many of them are upset about the war or whatever, or some of them are bought into this anti-Israel claptrap. But many of those aren’t even going to show up on Election Day.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Pfaff kept his own hedge: he is not saying none will vote, and he is not saying young voter turnout won’t be maybe larger than normal, but not a lot. So the turnout model, he said, is really what matters, and he pointed to the poll that models it differently. TCC has covered the youth side of this fight before, in Pfaff’s analysis of Gen Z socialism and holding Congress.

“The Harvard-Harris poll that has Democrats up by 2 on the generic ballot is a really interesting one because it models more towards a 2024 mixture of turnout, seeing a larger number of Trump voters coming out than other polls are indicating.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

With Donald Trump on the road, Pfaff said, you can imagine that many of those voters will come out. Republicans are not projected to turn out in as large a number as Democrats. But Democrats are not entirely motivated by what Democrats are saying, because Democrats aren’t saying “this is what we’ll do.” Republicans aren’t doing enough of that either, he said. As Trump keeps campaigning and more Republican candidates pick up the message, he expects the result to be more positive than a lot of people are projecting. “I’m not saying it’s a big win,” he said, “but I’m just saying I think it’ll be better than what people think.”

The DSA Ick Factor: El-Sayed, Rogers and Hasan Piker

The co-host then turned the question around: what about the severe nature of the Democrat candidates? So many of them are DSA-backed extremes, he said, not traditional liberals at all, well outside the mainstream in America. Could that limit their gains?

“I’ve talked about this even on this show in the past and quite a bit: the DSA ick factor is out there. And in fact, a lot of the stuff that Abdul El-Sayed has been saying up in Michigan is not helping him at all.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

El-Sayed is trying to be honest by going on Fox News, Pfaff said, but he does not think it is connecting with people. He is not a big fan of Mike Rogers, the Republican in the Michigan Senate race, but he thinks Rogers is going to be able to pull it off because, as he put it, El-Sayed is connected in that way. Hasan Piker is not letting El-Sayed go either, he said, and that is not helping the situation much at all.

Nationally, Pfaff said, the general ick factor is there. The exception is three heavily Democrat districts in New York City where DSA members are likely to come into Congress. Everywhere there is competitiveness, he said, the DSA label is not going to help Democrats.

Paxton, Talarico and the Cruz–O’Rourke Precedent

The co-host asked directly whether Pfaff worries about Talarico winning in Texas, where, he said, Republicans chose a candidate with pretty severe personal issues. Pfaff reached back to Ted Cruz’s race against Beto O’Rourke: at the same point in that race the polls were very similar, and Cruz won. “Let’s just see how that plays out,” he said. In his opinion, it is very likely Ken Paxton wins. He acknowledged the seat is at risk.

The co-host pushed back: Ted did not have the personal issues Paxton has, and Ted was a far stronger candidate. Pfaff answered that Beto O’Rourke didn’t have the issues James Talarico has. The co-host conceded the point: “Fair enough.”

“Beto O’Rourke seemed like a young, normal Democrat candidate who was just pretty far left. But Talarico seems really weird, and Texas really doesn’t like that. And I don’t think the polls are very accurate right now. It’ll be close, but I just don’t think he’s going to win. I think Paxton’s going to pull it out, maybe even in spite of himself.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

“Even in spite of himself,” Rush repeated. Pfaff pointed to the audio that came out: what a stupid thing, he said, for Paxton to be on Capitol Hill meeting 12 people for a fundraiser in D.C. instead of being in Texas, and then to say what he said. It is going to be a challenge for him, Pfaff said, but the inertia is going to be in his favor. TCC covered Talarico’s record in the Texas Capitol plot, the IRGC letter and Talarico’s church.

Key Takeaways

1. The Senate looks safe, the House is in play – Pfaff is pretty confident the Senate stays Republican and sees the tide rising slowly for Republicans to keep the House, with 60 members of Congress retired or leaving.
2. Libertarians for Democrats aren’t for limited government – A D+15 generic-ballot claim is not a true poll, he said; the top end is about a 2-point difference.
3. Young voter turnout limits the damage – Young people generally don’t come out at elections like this one, so many of those bought into the anti-Israel claptrap aren’t even going to show up, Pfaff said.
4. The turnout model is what matters – The Harvard-Harris poll at Democrats up 2 models a 2024-style turnout with more Trump voters, and with Trump on the road, you can imagine many of those voters are going to come out.
5. The DSA ick factor is national – What Abdul El-Sayed has been saying in Michigan is not helping him at all; only three New York City districts are likely to send DSA members to Congress.
6. Paxton over Talarico – Pfaff expects Ken Paxton to win Texas, maybe even in spite of himself, because Talarico seems really weird to Texans.

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About The Conservative Caucus:
The Conservative Caucus is a grassroots public policy action organization, formed in 1974. Headed by President Jim Pfaff, the Caucus is committed to advancing free enterprise, limited government, and traditional values.

Originally broadcast Oct 6, 2026 on Rush to Reason with John Rush, KLZ 560.