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The Republican Ground Game as Arizona Voting Opens: Jim Pfaff on The Russ Clark Show | Oct 6, 2026

Published: October 6, 2026
Network: KBLU 560 Yuma
Analysis: Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff

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Early voting in Arizona opened the day after this interview, and Russ Clark started his October 6 segment of The Russ Clark Show by asking Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff for his best read on the midterms, with predictions running from a Democratic sweep to a Republican one. One month out from November 3, much of Pfaff’s answer turned on the Republican ground game: whether candidates carry the administration’s message into their own campaigns and do the work on the ground, not just in their ads. The two went on to Andy Biggs and Katie Hobbs, the next press secretary, Tom Homan’s answer to a CBS reporter, and why Republicans in Congress rarely fight the way Homan does.

Topics Covered

• A Blue Trickle, Not a Sweep
• Red Diesel, Giveaways and the Numbers Message
• The Republican Ground Game in Arizona
• Who Speaks for Trump: The Next Press Secretary
• Tom Homan and the Administration Standard
• $174,000, the Rules Committee and the Worst 20%
• Key Takeaways

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A Blue Trickle, Not a Sweep

Clark said he had read people, Chuck Schumer among them, predicting a sweep for one side or the other. Pfaff ruled out a wave first.

“The best outcome for Democrats is a blue trickle. I don’t think it’s anything like a sweep. But there are a lot of numbers that could point either way.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Harry Enten noted that in a lot of midterms over the last 25 or so years the polls were right all the way through; if that holds, Pfaff said, Democrats pick up House seats and very well may get the Senate. But a recent Harvard Harris poll showed only a 2-point gap in party preference, and generic ballot polls, he said, tell you general sentiment, not how districts play out.

Tip O’Neill’s all politics is local still plays out, he said. In Kansas, Roger Marshall is a little bit on the ropes against Democrat Adam Hamilton, a very talented communicator Pfaff called a radical, Talarico-style leftist and a so-called pastor, who is running ahead of Marshall or at least close. Vivek Ramaswamy is having a real challenge in Ohio. In Texas, Greg Abbott is way ahead in his polling, but Ken Paxton is slightly trailing James Talarico.

“But I really do believe that Republicans, in spite of themselves in some areas, and because of Donald Trump and others, are going to do a lot better than people expect. And I think that may mean keeping Congress. I’m not predicting that yet.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

“I wish I could be more definitive,” he added. What could make the difference in some seats, he said later, is the Republican ground game: candidates running the administration’s message in their own campaigns over the next 30 days.

Red Diesel, Giveaways and the Numbers Message

Clark asked what will make the difference by November. Trump is out there helping, he said, but telling people they can buy red diesel now looked a little political to him. Pfaff’s answer: why not just get rid of all the dang taxes on diesel? He had changed the serpentine belt on his 2010 F-250 the night before, so he could drive it at $6.50 a gallon in Indiana.

Moves like that are fine, he said. The $5,000 checks if we win, and $100 checks to Social Security recipients so they can pay for Medicare Part D, are not a very positive message to him or to a lot of people. It shows what Democrats do, he said, and Democrats get away with it all the time, “but mostly because Republicans are stupid.”

“So Donald Trump, though, I don’t think he needs to be saying all the giveaways. I just think he needs to be talking about the numbers that are actually very good. Even the Wall Street Journal, which has really gone kind of left in recent years, they had to grudgingly, in my opinion, admit that the economy is pretty darn good in some fundamentals.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

That is the message Trump should be putting out, Pfaff said, and he is. Republicans should be putting it out too, along with the fear. He pointed to a great new ad from Tom Tiffany’s campaign for governor in Wisconsin on illegal immigration and some very real crimes. That is effective, he said, because every Democrat policy has always led to evil and Republican policies have actually worked. The only thing holding them back is Republicans in Congress, and a brand new wave of 60 new members is about to come in because of all the retirements.

Iran, Pfaff said, is simmering at the bottom rather than boiling over, because of what Trump has done. He sees a momentum shift: no one is pining for Democrats to come on the scene.

The Republican Ground Game in Arizona

Voters, Pfaff said, just want Republicans to show them what they are going to do and what the next step is. He called that the messaging point for the next 30 days as early voting rolls out, and said what Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent and Trump say is really good.

“You’ve just got to get Republicans doing the same thing in their campaigns. Some are, some aren’t. And actually, I think that that’s going to be the difference in some seats.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Clark reported from Arizona that the Republican Party is paying attention. They are working, putting out flyers, putting up boards and making phone calls. And still, he said, he hears people ask why the Republican Party is not doing anything. Pfaff said that is largely because many of them aren’t.

He said he thinks Andy Biggs’ campaign is doing a decent job, putting out a good message against a governor he thinks people hate more than the polls indicate. People really hate Katie Hobbs, he said, and they are tired of her. Voters are not only blaming Republicans; they are blaming Democrats, which he called reason to hope.

Then he asked where the Republican Party is, and where the activists are, and named the weak spot in the Republican ground game.

“We still have a consultant problem where the consultants do all the ad buying and ad making stuff. And it’s not just what you do in your ads, it’s also what you do on the ground and encouraging people and bringing them on board with you.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Pfaff has taken on the consultants before, in GOP consultants, the AI scare and the $200 million Texas question. For Pfaff, the Republican ground game is encouraging people and bringing them on board, not just ads, plus candidates who sound like the administration.

Who Speaks for Trump: The Next Press Secretary

Clark asked who the next press secretary will be. Pfaff had not heard any good rumors. Clark had heard Scott Jennings probably will not do it, and recalled Jennings coming to Yuma for a fundraiser for far less than his normal fee. If Dan Bongino is any indication, Pfaff said, why would Jennings give up his Salem radio show for a crappy government job? Too many of these positions go to people leveraging themselves to the next gig, Pfaff said, though he would not claim that of Karoline Leavitt, whose Fox position had just been announced.

“I think you want someone good who can take attention away from Donald Trump always having to be the messenger. I think she provided that pretty well. Most of his cabinet does that really well too. And it’s always good to kind of let Donald Trump come in and do the zingers and let everyone else who’s competent to be in the spotlight to really carry the message for you as much as possible.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

On a report that Trump would prefer a female press secretary, Pfaff said it has worked for him: Kayleigh McEnany, Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Leavitt were all very effective. A woman tough enough to communicate effectively softens a tough message so it does not seem as combative as it is, he said, which balances a president delivering the harsher message. Karine Jean-Pierre failed, in his words, “because she’s dumb and not tough.”

Tom Homan and the Administration Standard

Clark turned to Tom Homan, who he said did something he wishes more Republicans would do. Challenged by CBS reporter Camilo Montoya-Galvez about migrant deaths in custody during his tenure, 57 by Clark’s count, Homan asked how many people died in custody during the Biden administration. The reporter would not answer. Homan pushed until he finally said he didn’t know, and Homan said, of course you don’t know. Clark called it brilliant and asked why more Republicans don’t stand up and say you treat us differently.

Pfaff drew a line between two kinds of Republicans.

“There is a distinguishment here between Republicans in the administration and Republicans in Congress. And you will notice that most of his administration is very good at doing what Tom Homan does. I mean, Marco Rubio is excellent at it.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

JD Vance does it in his manner, he said, and RFK is really good at it. They can, because they are not being elected for anything; the only way to mess up in that position is to say something wrong. In Congress, members are getting elected and want to make sure they don’t mess something up that gets them unelected unnecessarily. That, Pfaff said, is the biggest reason Republicans are so weak: Democrats find a way to employ their former elected officials, and that doesn’t happen as much on the Republican side.

$174,000, the Rules Committee and the Worst 20%

But the bigger problem, Pfaff said, is that people want to get reelected. He has raised the $174,000 paycheck with Clark before, a theme TCC has covered in Republicans in Congress who fear for their own paycheck. To do the job the way it exists now, he said, you have to throw your career into the trash, unless you have a professional designation like a lawyer or doctor.

The other problem is that leadership in both houses runs the show, like 100%. Before Newt Gingrich, committee chairs had real power; then everything went through the Rules Committee, generally run by the Speaker. Your reelection, Pfaff said, is now based on how well leadership likes you. He has seen it in attacks on House Freedom Caucus members, including his former boss.

“My then former boss, Tim Huelskamp, who had gotten kicked off his committees, was one of the founders of the Freedom Caucus. Well, you had leadership literally working against him to take him out. That’s why Roger Marshall ultimately ended up becoming senator in Kansas, because they propped up Roger Marshall to run against him.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Huelskamp would not compromise on conservative and liberty-minded principles, he said. Hence the fecklessness: aberrations like Chip Roy and Brandon Gill stay firm, while the rest worry about their $174,000 paycheck and a future one with some lobbying firm they don’t want to make mad.

Media pressure is real, he told Clark’s co-host, but members are under constant pressure to raise money and please everyone, and most of them, he said, have no conscience or are kind of cowardly. He closed with his breakdown of any legislature: about 20% there for all the right reasons, a squishy middle of 60% that will do what anyone tells them because they are afraid to lose their seat, and 20% there for evil reasons.

“The biggest problem with legislative bodies is that 90% of leadership is made up of that worst 20%.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

For the Republican ground game, the point carries into November: Pfaff said getting Republicans to say in their campaigns what the administration says will be the difference in some seats, and in Congress the members who talk that way are still the exception.

Key Takeaways

1. A blue trickle, not a sweep – Pfaff’s forced bet: Democrats slightly take the House, Republicans keep the Senate, though he called 53 Republican Senate seats and a similar House majority very possible.
2. All politics is local – A 2-point generic-ballot gap says little about districts, Pfaff said, pointing to Kansas, Ohio and Texas.
3. Run on the numbers, not giveaways – Pfaff said Trump should talk about an economy even the Wall Street Journal grudgingly admits is pretty good in some fundamentals.
4. The Republican ground game decides close seats – Pfaff said candidates who carry the administration’s message, and work on the ground instead of leaving it to consultants, will be the difference in some seats.
5. The Homan standard – The administration fights back because it is not running for anything; reelection fear, Pfaff said, keeps Republicans in Congress weak.
6. Leadership holds the power – Through the Rules Committee, Pfaff said, reelection depends on leadership, and 90% of leadership comes from the worst 20%.

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About The Conservative Caucus:
The Conservative Caucus is a grassroots public policy action organization, formed in 1974. Headed by President Jim Pfaff, the Caucus is committed to advancing free enterprise, limited government, and traditional values.

Originally broadcast Oct 6, 2026 on The Russ Clark Show with Russ Clark, KBLU 560 Yuma.