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The Generic Ballot and the Missing Turnout Model: Jim Pfaff on The Bill Mitchell Show | Oct 7, 2026

Published: October 7, 2026
Network: The Bill Mitchell Show
Analysis: Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff

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With the 2026 midterms ahead, Bill Mitchell asked Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff for his read on the House on the October 7 edition of The Bill Mitchell Show. Pfaff started with the generic ballot, and with why it settles nothing yet: the polls he has seen run from Democrats +2 to Democrats +15, and he does not think any pollster has figured out the turnout model. From there the two went through the Senate races, the House count and the one slice of turnout Pfaff said will decide the election.

Topics Covered

• The Generic Ballot Range: D+2 to D+15
• Why the Turnout Model Moves Late
• Gas Prices, the SAVE America Act and the Voters Who Stay Home
• Senate Races Where the Polls Are Tightening
• The House Math: 19 Toss-Ups and an Impeachment Risk
• The Harvard-Harris D+2 and the MAGA Turnout Model
• Key Takeaways

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The Generic Ballot Range: D+2 to D+15

Pfaff was plain that he does not know how to calculate precisely what the outcome is going to be. If someone put a gun to his head and made him bet, he said, he would put money on Democrats taking the House, but by a slim margin. He does not see a blue wave coming. Then he explained the generic ballot numbers that drive the wave talk.

“I’ve seen a range of the generic ballot, which is, are you going to vote for a Republican or a Democrat this year? Not, are you going to vote for some particular Republican. It’s not related to a district, it’s just general sentiment. The literal range of those polls right now is a +2 for Democrats to a +15 for Democrats. I don’t even think any pollster has figured out what the turnout model is going to be.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

That spread between generic ballot polls is the problem. Every pollster, Pfaff said, has to adjust the raw sample for turnout: if Republicans, Democrats or independents are oversampled, some respondents are removed at random. “So they all do this. It’s part of the whole process,” he said. “But I don’t think people have figured out what that turnout model is at the moment, and I’m not even sure I know precisely how the turnout’s going to be.”

Even so, Pfaff said the race leans Democrat right now, because midterms usually go against the president’s party.

Why the Turnout Model Moves Late

Mitchell called the DSA the 800-pound gorilla in the room. It may scare moderate Democrats into sitting this one out, he said, and young voters turn out at about 20 to 23% in midterms compared to 60% of other voters. A 2 or 3 point shift, he said, can change everything.

Pfaff agreed, and gave the other side of the ledger: registered Democrats are more energized than Republicans in the polls, and independents are about as motivated as Republicans. But he is betting young voters do not show up at any better than the normal rate, and since young people are pretty Democrat, that can be the 2 or 3 points. We are going to learn what the turnout model was after the election, he said, and there are reasons to believe Trump Republicans might just show up if the race looks like it is going Democrats’ way.

He pointed to a second reason the generic ballot is a snapshot rather than a forecast.

“Keep in mind, one of the dynamics that a lot of people don’t talk about, and I don’t hear a lot of discussion on, is that most people make their decision close to the election. They finally just say for some reason they’re going to go one way or the other. I also think the turnout, it gets moved as you get closer to the election.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

What looks like lower turnout changes, he said, when people step away from what they are living day to day and realize they have a responsibility to vote. Voters who say right now that they are not motivated suddenly get motivated.

Gas Prices, the SAVE America Act and the Voters Who Stay Home

Pfaff named one of the most important factors in this election: the Iran war and gas prices. If the war stops, as Trump keeps saying it will, he said you would see a wave of people coming to vote for Republicans.

He does not see gas prices coming down soon. Ukraine has destroyed some Russian refineries, particularly diesel refineries, so even with more oil coming out, the refined product is not there; and this country, he said, has not built a refinery in 30 years. What voters care about, he said, is adding $20 to a fill-up.

Mitchell doubted voters would turn to Democrats over gas prices; more likely, he said, voters on the fence just sit home. Pfaff agreed it is a dispiriting factor, and put part of the blame on Congress.

“The SAVE America Act is a big example of that. And anyone that thinks that Americans aren’t thinking about that right now going into elections — an elections bill that 80% of Americans wanted — that is a marquee mistake that Republicans made in the last 2 years.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

John Thune nixed it, Pfaff said; to Mike Johnson’s credit and the House Republicans’ credit, they passed it. But if you haven’t passed the bill, he said, you failed: it’s a binary choice, you either won or you lost. Congress also failed to follow the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill with something similar this year. Voters, he said, are afraid of Democrats maybe, but they are also afraid of Republicans if they do not have a real good plan.

Senate Races Where the Polls Are Tightening

In Texas, Pfaff said money did not start flowing to Ken Paxton until about mid-month last month, which gave James Talarico a long money advantage. The polls have tightened, though many still show Talarico ahead by 1 or 2 points. Ted Cruz, he noted, was behind at this stage against Beto O’Rourke and won. Mitchell added that Democrats have historically overpolled by 4 to 5 points at this point.

In Michigan, Mitchell said Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed are a point or two apart. Pfaff said Black voters are not very excited about El-Sayed, and the Democrat primary numbers showed it. He also pointed to El-Sayed’s recent Fox News interview, where he would not denounce the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist actor. TCC covered the race earlier in why Michigan is the DSA’s next test case.

“I think ultimately Mike Rogers is going to pull that out. I think it’s going to be by a whisker, but I think he is going to pull it out. I think you’re going to see Black voters either not show up at all or maybe Black males that would show up to vote for Mike Rogers because they see El-Sayed as a risk.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

In Ohio, Mitchell said the Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted race is down to about 3 points. Pfaff gave Husted a better than 50% chance, but said negativity toward data centers, which he called fear, uncertainty, doubt and doomerism the left brought out, has made Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy dance around the issue. He is a little more worried about Ohio than Michigan and Texas.

In Maine, Mitchell said the polls are always wrong on Susan Collins; there were polls where she was behind by 6 points on Election Day and she won by 8. Pfaff thinks she pulls it out. In their debate, he said, Collins said only Americans should vote in American elections, an issue that cuts party lines with 70 to 75% support for voter ID among Democrats.

He added that a Michele Tafoya win in Minnesota is truly doable.

The House Math: 19 Toss-Ups and an Impeachment Risk

Mitchell counted 22 toss-up seats, 17 Republican-held and 5 Democrat-held. Pfaff pulled up his own polling side project, which averages thousands of polls over the last 7 days without massaging the pollsters he likes, and uses expert ratings such as the Cook Political Report where there are no polls.

“I think it’s gonna be a Democrat trickle in this election, not a Democrat wave. There is momentum still with Democrats, enough for them to take the House, but I don’t think it’s out of the bag. I think it’s a 50-50 toss-up, frankly, right now.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Mitchell asked what damage a narrow Democrat House could do if nothing makes it past the Senate or Trump’s veto pen. Pfaff’s answer started with one word.

“Impeachment. They’re going to push for impeachment. All they need is a majority vote to do it. It’s going to put pressure on John Thune to have an impeachment trial.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Pfaff believes Republicans keep the Senate, but said Thune will still have RINOs who might go along, because Donald Trump is a lame duck who will not be on the ballot in 2 years. TCC, he said, is in a lot of races with TV and radio ads to help candidates get over the line.

The Harvard-Harris D+2 and the MAGA Turnout Model

Mitchell said young people and left-leaning independents will not turn out as much as the polls think. In 2016, he said, the pollsters weren’t measuring the monster vote, and he sees a monster MAGA vote this year.

Pfaff told Trump voters to get their friends off the sidelines and to vote early: we want to get rid of early voting, he said, but that is what we have right now. Then he came back to the generic ballot poll at the friendly end of the range.

“I told you there’s this poll that says D+2 generic ballot. That’s a Harvard-Harris poll. What they did in that poll is they sampled a MAGA turnout model that’s a little higher than what most people are doing. What that should tell you is if you just get your friends that voted for Trump in 2024 to show up, then we can win this thing.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

The D+2 end of the generic ballot range, in other words, comes from a poll that modeled higher MAGA turnout, and Pfaff said that portion of the turnout will be the deciding factor in this election. He has made the same case about the voters who skip midterms in his analysis of low-propensity voters and Trump’s last hurrah. To anyone mad at Republicans, he said handing it to Democrats would be a very foolish mistake.

“We are going to be in a run of existential elections for some time to come right now. We are not out of the woods as a country right now. We are under threat if Democrats ever get full power the way they did under the Biden administration one more time.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Key Takeaways

1. The generic ballot runs from D+2 to D+15 – Pfaff does not think any pollster has figured out the turnout model yet.
2. Turnout moves late – Most people decide close to the election, Pfaff said, and voters who say they are not motivated suddenly get motivated.
3. Gas prices and the SAVE America Act – Pfaff called failing to pass an elections bill 80% of Americans wanted a marquee mistake.
4. Senate races are tightening – Pfaff expects Paxton, Rogers and Collins to win, gives Husted a better than 50% chance, and is more worried about Ohio than Michigan or Texas.
5. A Democrat trickle, not a wave – Pfaff’s count is 212 R, 204 D and 19 toss-ups; a Democrat House would push impeachment.
6. The Harvard-Harris D+2 – That generic ballot poll used a higher MAGA turnout model; if Trump’s 2024 voters show up, Pfaff said, Republicans can win.

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About The Conservative Caucus:
The Conservative Caucus is a grassroots public policy action organization, formed in 1974. Headed by President Jim Pfaff, the Caucus is committed to advancing free enterprise, limited government, and traditional values.

Originally broadcast Oct 7, 2026 on The Bill Mitchell Show with Bill Mitchell.