Thomas Massie’s Election Loss: Jim Pfaff’s Insider Analysis on the Joshua Carr Show | Jul 29, 2026
Published: July 29, 2026
Network: The Joshua Carr Show
Analysis: Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff
Thomas Massie lost his election this year, and Jim Pfaff watched it happen from closer range than almost anyone: he served as Massie’s chief of staff. On July 29, Pfaff, president of The Conservative Caucus, joined host Joshua Carr on The Joshua Carr Show to answer the question directly — why did Massie lose? Pfaff’s answer goes past the pro-Israel money Massie blames. He also laid out the Senate procedure that passes the Save America Act without nuking the filibuster, the GOP committees’ $657 million war chest, and the shape of the 2028 Republican field.
Topics Covered
- Why Thomas Massie Lost: More Than AIPAC Money
- Against Nice: Niceness Fails, Kindness Confronts
- Passing the Save America Act Without Nuking the Filibuster
- The GOP’s $657 Million War Chest — and Its Leadership Problem
- The 2028 Field: Vance, Rubio, DeSantis
- Key Takeaways
Why Thomas Massie Lost: More Than AIPAC Money
Pfaff’s credentials on this question are direct. He first went to Capitol Hill as chief of staff to Congressman Tim Huelskamp of Kansas — one of the four members John Boehner kicked off committees around 2012. By 2016-17, Thomas Massie asked Pfaff to become his chief of staff, a job he held for a couple of years. The two are still friends; Pfaff was texting with him while driving through Kentucky just last weekend. His assessment of the Kentucky congressman’s value has never wavered:
“I have always said that if Donald Trump had 220 Thomas Massies, he would get 95% of what he ever wanted legislatively, everything he wanted and more.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
Pfaff goes further: with 220 such votes, he thinks the country would be out of its $2 trillion deficit posture as well. So what happened? Massie blames AIPAC and the Israel fight, and Pfaff concedes the money was real — Miriam Adelson and other pro-Israel donors spent heavily to beat him. But the money is not the whole answer. Voters found Thomas Massie’s votes hard to understand. He voted against the one big beautiful bill — a bill that kept the Trump tax cuts, delivered no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, and immediate expensing of capital expenditures — second in importance only to keeping the tax structure, by Pfaff’s ranking, and a large part of what is strong in the economy right now. Pfaff admits he would have been on the fence himself because the bill contained no spending cuts at the height of DOGE, but he would have ultimately voted yes. Years earlier, Massie sat on the Rules Committee and let a McCarthy-era compromise advance that kept Nancy Pelosi’s spending going.
Pfaff also defends the vote others attacked. In spring 2020, when Congress tried to voice-vote the $2.5 trillion CARES Act, Thomas Massie forced every member back to Washington because the Constitution requires a quorum to do business. Pfaff calls that stand courageous and right — on $2.5 trillion, there is no better reason to have a quorum. But the deeper cause of the loss, in Pfaff’s judgment, was a change in the man:
“I think the happy warrior that he was when Donald Trump was against him in previous times went away. And I think it got stirred up because of the Israel issue.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
That newly formed animus toward Donald Trump, layered on the Israel fight, is what Pfaff thinks ultimately took him down. And the trade is a bad one for the country: Pfaff says the man replacing Thomas Massie will do everything Trump wants, but Massie’s overall voting record is superior to what his successor’s will be. When Massie tried to call his opponent to congratulate him, he couldn’t get hold of him — the opponent, Pfaff thinks, was in Tel Aviv. Pfaff’s verdict: happy warriors don’t do that.
Against Nice: Niceness Fails, Kindness Confronts
Carr asked about Pfaff’s personal podcast, Against Nice, which has featured Victor Davis Hanson, Peter Schweizer, and Fox Business’s Charlie Gasparino. The premise is the same disease Pfaff diagnoses in John Thune now and Mitch McConnell before him — and Pfaff grounds it theologically: God does not command believers to be nice, and God was not nice in judging the Canaanites.
“Niceness does not advance anything. I will tell you what is very positive, and that’s kindness.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
The distinction does work. Kindness seeks the good intent of others — the parent who disciplines a child is being kind, and no child being disciplined thinks it’s nice. Meanwhile the people demanding niceness from conservatives scream at their opponents, burn trash cans outside conservative events, and gave us the BLM riots and the LA riots last year. Pfaff applies the standard to Congress itself: he knew most of the professing Christian members when he worked there, and says the large majority of them vote like Satan — they profess an ultimate law while refusing to demand the Constitution be followed. That is the same failure we documented in our analysis of the oath of office and the DSA members now sitting in Congress.
Passing the Save America Act Without Nuking the Filibuster
Carr put the practical question: 80% of Americans want this bill, but how does it pass without Democrats? Pfaff’s first move was to reject the popular answer. He does not support nuking the filibuster, even though Trump and many of his supporters call for it — Harry Reid nuked the filibuster for nominees and handed Republicans an advantage for years. The right path is the one Mike Lee laid out publicly on Tuesday of that week: put the bill on the floor and run the Senate’s actual rules. Every senator gets to speak twice on a bill. Once those two opportunities are exhausted, the bill moves to a majority vote. Cloture — the 60-vote threshold everyone treats as a wall — came in during the 1920s as a two-thirds vote and was reduced to 60 in the 1970s. Cloture is not the filibuster; it’s a way out of the filibuster. The other way out is straight through the process.
The 1964 Precedent
Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield, a Democrat, put the Civil Rights Act of 1964 on the floor and filed it through the normal process. Over a few weeks, the opposition wore down and the Senate reached a cloture vote. Pfaff says John Thune was lying when he recently dismissed Mike Lee’s use of that precedent. Either the opposition cries uncle and votes for cloture, or the debate exhausts itself — both paths end in a vote.
Why fight this hard for one election bill? Because of what it restores:
“Save America Act would take us very close back to the gold standard of the election process ever in human history that we had for 230 years.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
That gold standard changed because Democrats got angry about George W. Bush winning in 2000, and then, under Barack Obama, worked to institute Chicago-style elections nationwide — mostly through lawsuits against states, plus legislation like California’s. Both sides of the aisle now worry they can’t trust elections, which is why the bill polls where it does. And even a losing fight matters: it tells voters Republicans are serious, a momentum argument Pfaff has made before in his case for the Save America Act as the key to midterm turnout.
The GOP’s $657 Million War Chest — and Its Leadership Problem
Carr played CNN’s Harry Enten reporting the committee cash-on-hand numbers: Republicans at $657 million across the NRSC and NRCC, Democrats at about $334 million — half the level. Pfaff corrected the framing from eight years of Capitol Hill experience. The Democrats’ historic advantage was never the campaign committees; it was outside money, the 527s and 501s the billionaires fund. And the committees themselves do a sucky job with what they raise — the exception being a leader like former Congressman Tom Davis, a moderate in his voting record but a genius at campaign work who knew every congressional district in the country. The Democrat Party is at its lowest approval rating ever, and Republicans hold a 2-point polling advantage on the Iran issue. The numbers favor Republicans. The obstacle is elsewhere:
“The problem is Republican leadership, and they don’t want to do anything that would legislatively— that would inspire people to want to vote for them.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
That is the whole indictment in one sentence: leadership running to recess while a bill with 80% support sits on the table and their own voters are energized to act.
The 2028 Field: Vance, Rubio, DeSantis
Carr showed the 2028 GOP nomination poll: JD Vance at 37%, Marco Rubio at 20%, Don Jr. at 9%, Ron DeSantis at 7%. Pfaff reads it as a coming slugfest between Vance and Rubio — with a caveat. These polls swing toward whichever man is most visible: Vance dominated early 2025, Rubio led most of this year, and Vance is back in front as the Iran issue rose. The winner is typically the one with more fire in the belly, and there has been discussion that Vance’s young family weighs against a run. DeSantis finding a path is not ruled out either. But Pfaff refuses to call it:
“There is no clear way to think about that because Donald Trump is still the primary figure in the Republican Party, and that’s not going to change until sometime after the November elections.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
A brutal primary is not a danger — it’s the mechanism. Reagan’s 1976 and 1980 runs for president were highly contentious — in 1976 he was one of a handful of challengers to sitting President Gerald Ford and almost won the nomination — and the country later coalesced around Reagan because it heard what he thought. Trump gave the eulogy for Lindsey Graham the day before this interview; the two were the biggest of enemies when Graham ran for president in 2016. That’s how the republic works: a pugilistic process that gets ideas challenged, then brings the party back together.
Key Takeaways
- The money was real, but it wasn’t the cause – Miriam Adelson and pro-Israel donors spent heavily against Thomas Massie, but his former chief of staff says the loss came when Massie stopped being a happy warrior and let animus toward Trump take hold.
- 220 Massies would transform Washington – Pfaff says Trump would get 95% of his legislative agenda, and the $2 trillion deficit posture would end, with a House full of members who vote like Thomas Massie.
- The Save America Act does not require nuking the filibuster – Mike Lee’s path: run the talk-twice rule to a majority vote, exactly how Mike Mansfield moved the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
- Republicans have the money and the numbers – $657 million against $334 million, the Democrats’ lowest approval ever, a 2-point edge on Iran. The missing piece is leadership willing to fight for a bill 80% of Americans support.
- 2028 is a Vance-Rubio slugfest that can’t start yet – Trump remains the party’s primary figure until after the November elections, and a contentious primary, like Reagan’s in 1976 and 1980, is healthy.
Share This Analysis
Join The Conservative Caucus
Help us fight for election integrity and expose government corruption. Your support makes investigative journalism like this possible.
DONATE TODAYAbout The Conservative Caucus:
The Conservative Caucus is a grassroots public policy action organization, formed in 1974. Headed by President Jim Pfaff, the Caucus is committed to advancing free enterprise, limited government, and traditional values.
Originally broadcast Jul 29, 2026 on The Joshua Carr Show.
Peter J. Thomas is a veteran conservative political strategist and seasoned policy expert dedicated to upholding the principles of the Constitution and democracy. As a founder and the chairman of the Conservative Caucus, he has played a pivotal role in promoting and shaping the conservative agenda across the nation for over half a century.