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Midterm Elections 2026: Jim Pfaff on Turnout, Iran & the Save America Act | Jul 23, 2026

Published: July 23, 2026
Network: Russ Clark Show
Analysis: Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff

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Jim Pfaff, President of The Conservative Caucus, joined Russ Clark on July 23 to answer the question every Republican strategist is chewing on: what actually decides the midterm elections in November? His answer is not Iran. It is turnout, the Save America Act, and whether Congress locks the DOGE cuts into its budget. Pfaff walks through the 15 toss-up House races, the 74% historical average that runs against the party in power, and the Senate fight where JD Vance holds the deciding card.

Topics Covered

• Iran Complicates November — It Does Not Decide It
• Midterm Elections Rise or Fall on Turnout
• The Save America Act and the 51st Vote
• Andy Biggs, Katie Hobbs, and the Arizona Governor’s Race
• Data Centers: Blessings, Not Curses
• A $1.5 Trillion Military Budget and a Social Security Fix
• Key Takeaways

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Iran Complicates November — It Does Not Decide It

The conversation opened where the last one left off: Iran. The day of the broadcast, the Houthis attacked Saudi Arabian ships in the Red Sea — a direct shot at Saudi Arabia’s pipeline push to bypass the Strait of Hormuz — and oil jumped to about $90. Pfaff’s read: pulling away now would be devastating, because Iran has set the precedent of trying to control the strait. As we covered in Jim’s earlier Russ Clark Show conversation on the Iran ceasefire and the economy, this was always the known risk.

“I think that Iran is a complicating factor not fundamentally the problem when it comes to the November elections.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Anyone who thinks November turns on Iran is fooling themselves, in Pfaff’s words. The Republican base is 100% on board with Donald Trump, and independents move in Trump’s direction when good news happens — the race recovers when outstanding items get resolved. Pfaff expects Trump to hit the Houthis again, a move he judges more effective than the current posture toward Iran itself. And the GOP convention arrives September 8th and 9th — a chance to inspire people if the party follows through to November.

Midterm Elections Rise or Fall on Turnout

Pfaff put a hard number on the danger, citing data Karl Rove — a man Pfaff admits he does not have a lot of respect for — showed on Fox News. Play the historical average forward and Republicans lose the House to a stronger Democrat majority.

Those Texas seats carry a catch: the ratings assume Hispanics vote the way they voted for Donald Trump in 2024. Pfaff argues they will — Hispanic-origin citizens are on Trump’s side on immigration because they know specifically how bad it gets without dealing with Biden’s mass immigration policy, and deportation even of non-criminals remains relatively popular in Hispanic populations. The open question is whether they show up.

That is the mechanism of every midterm. Turnout drops a good 20 to 35 or 40% from presidential years, because the horse race is not in the news day in and day out. When the administration’s outstanding items sit unresolved, the motivation to vote is not there; resolve them and you change the whole voter turnout dynamic. That is why Pfaff points at resolutions — end the Iran chapter, pass the Save America Act, lock in the DOGE cuts — as the real campaign strategy. Arizona’s disappointing primary turnout is the warning light.

The Save America Act and the 51st Vote

Asked what single factor looms largest over Congress, Pfaff did not hesitate.

“For whether Republicans can keep Congress or not is the Save America Act. I think that’s the biggest issue here.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

The math is brutal. Lisa Murkowski has already said she is a no on the reconciliation package, and Pfaff adds Tillis, potentially Cassidy, Cornyn, and McConnell to the list of likely no votes. Murkowski’s motive is structural: after Joe Miller beat her in the Republican primary, she ran as an independent and made a deal with her Democrat opponent’s base for second-choice votes. Ranked choice voting made her a senator, the Save America Act would harm her path, so she votes no. Pfaff’s verdict: she needs to be kicked out.

“JD Vance is the key factor in all this. He can come in as president of the Senate because he is the formal president of the Senate.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

The constitutional grounding is plain: each house makes its own rules, and the members decide what those rules are — parliamentarians do not run legislative bodies, elected leaders do. Pfaff’s plan: get to 50 votes, have Vance cast the 51st, grab the rules as his prerogative as president of the Senate, and tell John Thune this is how it’s going to be. Even Mike Lee, who long argued you cannot pass the Save America Act through reconciliation, is changing his tune — Pfaff points everyone to the explanation at @basedmikelee on X. We tracked the earlier Senate obstruction in our coverage of the Save America Act talking filibuster.

Why the urgency? For 230 years this country ran elections on a gold standard: precincts count the votes, because that is where the custody is. Democrats set out to change that in the late ’90s — not to change policy, but to change elections — after the religious right got Christians voting. Marc Elias and Norm Eisen used lawsuits to force states to rewrite their election processes, and after Barack Obama rose, they doubled down. The result, in Pfaff’s phrase, is Cook County elections all over the country: vote centers, unsolicited mail ballots, multi-day elections. The Save America Act reverses that.

Andy Biggs, Katie Hobbs, and the Arizona Governor’s Race

Pfaff was not surprised by Andy Biggs’ primary win margin. The governor’s office demands an administrative mind: Mike Pence went into the Indiana governor’s office with no administrative skill and flubbed it; Biggs is incredibly capable from exactly that perspective. The stakes are institutional — reelect a Katie Hobbs and you institutionalize your political problems, which is how Colorado went down its path. Biggs has a real shot because Hobbs is under investigation by a Democrat attorney general and will avoid any debate where Biggs would put her flat-footed. The Conservative Caucus is seriously considering independent expenditures in the race.

Then there is the Maricopa County recorder dispute, which is energizing Republicans who voted for reform and watched it get taken away.

“The, the recorder should be running the elections, but ultimately citizens run elections.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

That is the American tradition Pfaff wants back: elected officials administer, citizens run the process. There should not be a vote center counting votes in Maricopa County — each precinct reports its own count, because that is where the votes are. His charge to listeners: go run a precinct, because those votes add up in a governor’s race.

Data Centers: Blessings, Not Curses

Russ Clark raised the public backlash canceling and delaying data centers, and Pfaff planted a flag: he is very pro-data center, and the negative sentiment is not based on facts. He points to the All In podcast, where Chamath Palihapitiya and the hosts laid out the numbers, including Palihapitiya’s post showing data center land use is highly efficient. The electricity complaint has a direct answer in Trump’s pledge: let data centers build their own energy generation, the way high-use manufacturers historically did until coal emissions restrictions priced independent generation out of business. Small format nuclear plants — seven being built right now for data centers — plus solar make Western states like Arizona a natural technology hub.

The stakes are national. Only China is making any real attempt at AI progress; the European Union has 100 million more people than the United States and half the GDP, and a recent report put Great Britain’s economy below Mississippi’s. Pfaff’s own organization built an entire AI-driven operating system that radically transformed how it does business. His verdict: these data centers are going to be blessings, not curses, creating jobs to build them and ongoing jobs to maintain them.

A $1.5 Trillion Military Budget and a Social Security Fix

On the military budget, Pfaff reached back to his years as Tim Huelskamp’s chief of staff, when a $600 billion proposal had his budget-hawk boss fuming. Pfaff’s standard has not changed.

“I take this general stance that we need to have a badass military that we never use”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

But today’s $1.5 trillion proposal is excessively high in his judgment — and it is still only discretionary spending, roughly 20% of the federal budget. The real problem is the social welfare programs. Social Security is unconstitutional on its face: Article 1, Section 8 contains no authorization for transfer-payment programs. Your Social Security money is not sitting in a fund waiting for you — you are taking money from current taxpayers. The program held a $2.5 trillion surplus in the 1970s and ’80s until Democrats started borrowing against it for other priorities.

Because the program is not going away anytime soon, Pfaff’s fix is ownership: stop being a transfer program and start being a building program where people own their accounts. Let Americans below a chosen age participate in the same savings plan federal employees use, with its five funds of varying risk, growing like a 401(k). The Trump accounts for kids prove the model — private investors like Michael Dell are putting in billions. Trump wants to let anyone opt in, and Pfaff’s answer is that he would do it in a minute.

Key Takeaways

1. Iran complicates, turnout decides – Anyone who thinks the midterm elections turn on Iran is fooling themselves; the base is 100% behind Trump, and independents move his way when good news lands.
2. The 74% rule is the threat – History sends roughly 74% of the 15 House toss-ups to the party out of power, and the 11-to-15-seat redistricting gain only holds if Hispanic Trump voters show up.
3. Turnout drops 20 to 35 or 40% in off years – Resolving outstanding items — Iran, the Save America Act, the DOGE cuts — changes the voter turnout dynamic.
4. The Save America Act is the biggest issue – With Murkowski, Tillis, and likely McConnell as no votes, Pfaff wants JD Vance to cast the 51st vote and set the Senate rules.
5. Citizens run elections – Return vote counting to the precinct level, end unsolicited mail ballots and multi-day elections, and restore the 230-year gold standard.
6. Ownership fixes Social Security – Convert the transfer program into accounts people own, modeled on the federal employee savings plan and the Trump accounts already drawing billions from Michael Dell.

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About The Conservative Caucus:
The Conservative Caucus is a grassroots public policy action organization, formed in 1974. Headed by President Jim Pfaff, the Caucus is committed to advancing free enterprise, limited government, and traditional values.

Originally broadcast Jul 23, 2026 on Russ Clark Show.