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Will Republicans Hold Congress? Beating the 80-85% Odds: Jim Pfaff on The Tom Roten Show | Aug 18, 2026

Published: August 18, 2026
Network: WVHU (Huntington, West Virginia)
Analysis: Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff

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Will Republicans hold Congress in the 2026 midterms? On the August 18 edition of WVHU’s Tom Roten Show, Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff — former chief of staff to Congressmen Thomas Massie and Tim Huelskamp — told host Tom Roten the historical odds are brutal: off-year elections go against the party in the White House around 80 to 85 percent of the time. Yet Pfaff still sees a path to holding both chambers, built on record-low Democrat favorability and a growing “ick factor” around the socialist turn in that party. The obstacles, he argued, are Republicans themselves: a Senate that won’t pass the SAVE Act, a Congress that has given President Trump zero recess appointments, and the Iran war’s gas prices hanging over November. The conversation also covered Massie’s primary defeat and the day’s Florida governor primary featuring Byron Donalds.

Topics Covered

• 220 Thomas Massies: The Kentucky Primary’s Real Cost
• The 80-85% Headwind — and Why 2026 Might Break It
• The SAVE Act: The Republicans’ New Abortion?
• Zero Recess Appointments — and the McConnell Question
• Florida’s Primary: Byron Donalds and the DeSantis Legacy
• Iran and Gas Prices: The Greatest Risk to November
• Key Takeaways

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220 Thomas Massies: The Kentucky Primary’s Real Cost

Roten opened with the May Kentucky primary, where a challenger who, in the host’s telling, stayed in the basement and let Donald Trump’s team fight for him defeated Thomas Massie in the most expensive primary election in U.S. history. Pfaff, who served as Massie’s chief of staff, granted that Trump-Massie disagreements are politics — but rejected the idea that the district got an upgrade:

“if Donald Trump had had 220 Thomas Massies, I think he’d gotten everything that he wanted, everything that he had campaigned for in 2024”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

The winner, Pfaff said, will be “another cog in the DC wheel” — a yes man installed by overwhelming money who ran no real campaign of his own. The deeper problem is the institution he is joining. Congress, not the White House, is where the spending fight is lost, and Congress operates so far outside Article 1, Section 8 — the provision limiting what it can spend and tax for — that the scale is staggering. We covered the race in detail in our analysis of Thomas Massie’s primary loss.

“probably 70 to 80% of the federal budget is entirely unconstitutional on that basis”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Roten’s example of what was lost: ending the Department of Education. Trump’s executive order really doesn’t do anything, the host noted, because the department was created by Congress and must be ended by Congress — while Massie introduced a one-line bill every year terminating it as of December 31st. He even mused that if Jared Kushner was available, rather than brokering peace with Iran, maybe he could have brokered peace between Massie and Trump. Pfaff agreed — “that’s the way I look at it too” — and added perspective: Trump has done a whole lot to reduce government, from hundreds of thousands fewer federal employees to Russell Vought doing “a fantastic job” at OMB, but the executive branch doesn’t have the authority to change everything. Getting rid of the Department of Education is “easy pickings,” harming nobody but the teachers unions’ federal money pipeline — and Trump, Pfaff said, should have pushed Congress hard to pass that bill. Nobody on Capitol Hill wants to change the spending, he added, because everyone is getting their bread buttered in some way.

The 80-85% Headwind — and Why 2026 Might Break It

Roten put the question directly: a lot of people are predicting a bloodbath for Republicans — is that going to happen? Pfaff didn’t claim clairvoyance, but he refused to concede the year. Yes, off-year elections go against the party in the White House around 80 to 85 percent of the time, and that inertia works against Republicans right now. But two countervailing forces are real. First, disgust for Democrats is “objectively deep and broad” — their favorability is the lowest it’s ever been as a party nationwide. Second, the rise of the Democrat Socialists of America — which Pfaff called “really the Communist Party of America,” pointing to their goal of a Politburo-style system with the Senate abolished and the president and judiciary put under the House:

“I think that there’s an ick factor growing with that movement in the Democrat Party, and no elected Democrat or leader nationally in the Democrat Party is pushing back against that move.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Gen Zers can’t be warned against communism the way Cold War-era Gen Xers can, Pfaff acknowledged, but he believes Americans in large numbers recognize what’s at stake. The one thing working against Republicans keeping the House — which he called the most at risk — and the Senate is Republicans themselves, who can’t even pass the Save America Act, a bill that would make elections what they were for 230 years of American history:

“Republicans often grab defeat out of the jaws of victory, because everything is actually working in keeping the Congress in Republican hands”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

His bottom line: there’s still hope for keeping Congress in Republican hands, but it is definitely not ensured — “they better get off their dust and do something about it.”

The SAVE Act: The Republicans’ New Abortion?

Roten floated a theory he attributed to Massie — that the SAVE Act has become for Republicans what abortion was for decades: an issue worth more unpassed than passed.

“one of the reasons why Thomas Massie thinks it may not pass is it’s basically the new abortion. For the Republican Party”
— Tom Roten, The Tom Roten Show

Pfaff said there’s a lot of truth to that — and more. The tell is John Thune repeating “we don’t have the vote, so we can’t fight,” while Mike Lee, “one of our heroes in the Senate,” wants to fight, noting the bill has been put up for a vote three times to get people on the record. Accomplishing things in politics is not about getting people on the record, Pfaff said; it’s about fighting hard — something senators avoid because collegiality with Democrat colleagues matters more to them than collegiality with the American people. We have tracked the pressure campaign on John Thune over the SAVE Act as this fight has developed.

“I think it’s insane that an 80% issue you would not fight to the death to pass, and it is still supported by 80% of the American people”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Zero Recess Appointments — and the McConnell Question

Roten set up the segment with the Senate’s quick gavel-in, gavel-out routine that keeps President Trump from making recess appointments — with West Virginia’s own Jim Justice handling the gavel the other day. Bush, Obama, and Biden all had recess appointments; Trump, this term, has zero. Pfaff called it “an absolute travesty” and “political malfeasance,” and located the blame precisely:

“the weak part of the Trump agenda, as I’ve said from the very beginning, is Republicans in Congress”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Trump’s appointments, in Pfaff’s estimation, are a superior group compared to the Bush, Obama, and definitely the Biden administrations. Senate Republicans block recess appointments anyway — partly out of fear of what a Trump appointee might change, and partly, he said, because they’re giving a finger to a president they know is gone after his four-year term, so they can go back to business as usual. And the blame doesn’t stop at the Senate:

“this is not just a John Thune problem. This is also a Mike Johnson problem”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

If Speaker Johnson didn’t keep the House floor open, Trump would have the constitutional authority to put the Senate out of session — opening the door to recess appointments. Pfaff ranked the leaders: Johnson is pretty bad but better than Ryan and Boehner; Thune is worse than Johnson, and maybe worse than Mitch McConnell, who at least allowed some recess appointments in Trump’s first term. It is, he said, “an obscene outrage” — and every American should be upset with it.

Then came what Roten called the biggest question of the day: is Mitch McConnell even alive? Pfaff called it “the question of the century” — no one is trying to disabuse the notion, and even Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has challenged it. For the past two or three years, Pfaff said, McConnell’s office has been entirely run by his staff — “very Biden-esque,” if with smaller consequences than a staff-run presidency. The two discussed remedies: today there is no constitutional fix, but before the constitutional changes of the Progressive Era, senators were appointed by state legislatures — and Kentucky’s Republican legislature today has no authority to recall and replace him. Those early-20th-century changes, alongside the Federal Reserve and the income tax, Pfaff argued, pushed Americans’ lives into the bureaucratic sphere — to the point where he challenged listeners to find one area of life the federal government doesn’t touch, from EPA authority over his house to the USDA rules Massie’s PRIME Act tried to peel back for locally processed beef.

Florida’s Primary: Byron Donalds and the DeSantis Legacy

The interview aired on the day of Florida’s governor primary, and Roten asked whether Congressman Byron Donalds excites him. Pfaff’s answer: yes. Ron DeSantis — faults and all — powered real accomplishments through a Republican legislature Pfaff described as filled with obstructionists, just like Washington. Donalds has been a consistent fighter against the D.C. system, an intelligent and capable communicator willing to take risks and explain them to the public:

“So for me, I think that’s an excellent choice to replace Ron DeSantis, and Floridians should be really happy about it.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Polling suggested a breeze for Donalds, though Pfaff admitted to being on pins and needles going into the night. One disappointment: DeSantis has made no endorsement in the primary. Pfaff called that a missed opportunity — if DeSantis wants his legacy to continue, he needs the person best able to carry it — and said he hopes DeSantis endorses Donalds once the primary is done, “because the alternative is really disgusting when you think about it.” Asked about long-shot candidate James Fishback, who says things Massie’s admirers enjoy hearing, Pfaff endorsed the spirit: you need people in elective office hardened enough not to care what anyone says about them — while remaining, as Massie always was in Pfaff’s years working for him, a “happy warrior.” The stakes go beyond one state:

“Texas is a great place, but it doesn’t have the dynamic anti-government approach that you see taking place in Florida, where government gets reduced, pushed down further, and people can breathe.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Florida, he argued, is the example Americans need to see to have hope about where the country can go — and what happened on primary night would help set the stage for whether that example keeps growing, state by state.

Iran and Gas Prices: The Greatest Risk to November

Roten closed with the sore spot: the America First agenda promised in 2024 — no new wars, war with Iran would be stupid — against the reality of $4 and $5 gas. Nobody in the tri-state area, the host said, was walking around in February wishing to pay $2 or $3 more a gallon to feel safe from Iran’s nuclear bomb. Pfaff didn’t dispute the political danger:

“That is right now the greatest risk to November”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Other than gas prices, he said, every economic indicator is going the right way — because Joe Biden is not president, and the regulatory morass that shut down both the economy and Americans’ ability to speak against government actions, particularly on COVID, is gone. Pfaff wished the war had never happened, doesn’t want Iran to have a nuclear weapon, and isn’t sure the situation takes Republicans down in November — but it is the thing putting them most at risk, because it drowns out everything else. The stories that should dominate — like New Jersey claiming 6,000 illegals on its voter rolls when, as Pfaff put it, “now we know tens of thousands” are there — and the positive economic record aren’t the discussion:

“The economy is always the number one concern of Americans going into elections.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

The party that convinces voters the economy is working for them — whether the perception is right or wrong — gets carried across the finish line. And that perception, Pfaff warned, is not growing going into November. It’s on the sidelines: not bad, but enough to put things at risk.

Key Takeaways

1. The odds are steep but not fate – Off-year elections go against the White House party around 80-85% of the time, but record-low Democrat favorability and the “ick factor” around the Democrat Socialists give Republicans a real chance to hold Congress — with the House most at risk.
2. Republicans are their own biggest obstacle – An 80% issue like the SAVE Act sits unpassed while John Thune repeats that he doesn’t have the votes. Pfaff: Republicans “grab defeat out of the jaws of victory.”
3. The SAVE Act may be the new abortion – An issue kept alive to run on rather than pass, compounded by senators like Lisa Murkowski who benefit from ranked-choice arrangements and by lingering anti-Trump sentiment.
4. Zero recess appointments is a two-chamber problem – Senate Republicans won’t recess, and Mike Johnson’s open House floor blocks Trump’s constitutional path to forcing one. Thune, Pfaff says, may be worse than McConnell, who allowed some in Trump’s first term.
5. 220 Thomas Massies – Pfaff argues Trump would have gotten everything he campaigned for with a House full of Massies, and the most expensive primary in U.S. history bought the district “another cog in the DC wheel.”
6. Iran and gas prices are the greatest risk to November – Every other economic indicator points the right way, but the war distracts from the economy and from election-integrity stories like New Jersey’s voter rolls.

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About The Conservative Caucus:
The Conservative Caucus is a grassroots public policy action organization, formed in 1974. Headed by President Jim Pfaff, the Caucus is committed to advancing free enterprise, limited government, and traditional values.

Originally broadcast Aug 18, 2026 on WVHU’s Tom Roten Show.