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Beating the Midterm Curse: Jim Pfaff on Worldview Tube | Sep 9, 2026

Published: September 9, 2026
Network: Worldview Tube — Washington Report
Analysis: Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff

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The party holding the White House loses the midterms. On the September 9 edition of Worldview Tube’s Washington Report — with Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff live from the TCC media suite on day one of the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas — the host put the midterm curse to him as the uphill battle every sitting president’s party faces. Pfaff answered with a different number: in 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022, the party that spent the most money won the midterms. With a Trump-aligned PAC surging nearly $50 million into battleground races and the president allocating $400 to $500 million of his own super PAC, the money favors Republicans this time. The rest of the segment: Michigan, Medicare fraud, the polls, Iran and Canada.

Topics Covered

• The Midterm Curse and the Money That Has Broken It Before
• From the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas
• Why the DSA Message Is Not Enough By Itself
• $42 Billion in Fraud and the Chaos Democrats Create
• If the Polls Underestimate Republicans Again
• Iran, Ukraine, and the Canada Trade Fight
• Key Takeaways

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The Midterm Curse and the Money That Has Broken It Before

The host opened with a report that the MAGA Inc.-backed No Going Back PAC had surged nearly $50 million in ads across a dozen battleground races, framing it against the midterm curse. Pfaff produced a data point he had recently come across.

“One of the interesting data stats that I just saw recently is if you go to the previous midterm elections, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, the party that spent the most money ended up winning the midterms.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Republicans kept Congress in 2010 and 2014, lost it in 2018 when Democrats outspent them, and won it back in 2022 — four for four on the spending side of the midterm curse, and why Pfaff treats the sums now flowing as a big positive.

New Hampshire is the race he singled out as newly live. John Sununu had beaten Scott Brown in the primary the day before, and Pfaff called that a real opportunity for a pickup.

“This thing is really kind of changing a little bit and going in a way that a lot of people might not realize can look good for Republicans.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

He attached one condition and repeated it through the segment: all of it is incumbent on this event succeeding — on the convention inspiring the base to get excited again about Donald Trump and about the opportunities in Congress voters wanted in 2024. Much of what Trump promised has been fulfilled while Congress has been very weak, and candidates need to say they will stand with the president thick or thin. That is the argument TCC made in our analysis of whether Republicans can hold Congress against the historical odds.

From the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas

The Conservative Caucus reserved a prime media suite in what the RNC calls the Platinum Suite area, in the same row as ABC, CBS, NBC and Real America’s Voice, credentialed as a media entity. Pfaff’s team would be doing interviews in the hall, guests in the suite and live feeds across both days, with Ken Paxton and Mike Collins among those coming up, and everything TCC records goes up at theconservativecaucus.com. TCC previewed the operation in our coverage of the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas.

Doors open at 3:00 Central and speeches start at 4:00, with President Trump speaking that night and, by Pfaff’s understanding, the second day too, alongside JD Vance and a long list of candidates. For Pfaff the convention is not a celebration but the start of a message, and the midterm curse is broken or not broken by what candidates do with it over the eight weeks that follow.

“So tonight and tomorrow is a real opportunity for that message to get started. And if they can carry it through to November, if the candidates that are running for Congress will actually grab on to that message, I think the American people will give them a chance.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Why the DSA Message Is Not Enough By Itself

The program played a new Michigan ad tied to the 25th anniversary of 9/11, which used archival audio from the attacks and clips of activists praising them, and accused Abdul El-Sayed of giving comfort to that hatred, campaigning with it, accepting money from it and justifying it. Asked whether going after the ideas of the Democratic Socialists of America is the campaign that wins, Pfaff said: not by itself. Candidates tied to an organization committed to the overthrow of the American Republic are a legitimate story, and the DSA ick factor is growing. Then he drew the line.

“So you need to connect this election to a confirmed, asserted effort to fulfill the MAGA agenda, because that’s what people voted for in 2024.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

That means running on the vast list of successes that already exist — delivered mostly by the president on his own, because he has not been getting help from Congress. DOGE is his example of one that slipped from view: the numbers are still very real and still growing, but it has gone into the background. A candidate has to campaign on supporting that agenda, on making leadership follow it, and standing firm when it does not.

$42 Billion in Fraud and the Chaos Democrats Create

The next clip was Dr. Oz on healthcare fraud. Medicare and Medicaid were created in a high-trust environment, he said, and the country is now experiencing about $100 billion of theft a year, much of it because the COVID pandemic taught criminals to move into healthcare. Taking the fraud out would double the life expectancy of the Medicare trust fund. He credited Kim Brandt, who leads the program at Medicare, with already stopping $42 billion by not shipping the money out of the building.

Pfaff told Republicans to pair that number with a very clear message that Democrats create chaos in the way they implement their policies. Look at major cities, he said, and then at a great effect of the Trump administration — a 70% reduction in murder. If Republicans can make it clear they are the adults in the room, that is a huge issue, but asserting it does not do the work. You have to show why, and the administration has delivered.

To be candid, he said, the leadership in the Republican Congress has not been largely committed to that — definitely not in the Senate, not enough in the House. Change that, he said, and show people you will actually do it, and they will vote for you.

“So all you have to do is provide the alternative. The American people will come to that if you’ll just do that clearly.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

The number behind that: in all of modern polling, Democrats are at the lowest favorability rating they have ever had. Give Donald Trump the tools to finish the job, Pfaff said, and a few years of very real progress is something the American people will go along with.

If the Polls Underestimate Republicans Again

After the break, the program ran a CNN segment on the 2026 map. If the polls underestimate Republicans by two to four points: 53 Senate seats, a flip in Michigan where El-Sayed and Rogers are neck and neck, and Texas going red with Ken Paxton elected over James Talarico. On the House side, a polling miss greater than three points was enough to hold the chamber with 218 or more seats — an error, the analyst noted, that has absolutely happened before.

Pfaff did not take that as reassurance. We do not know where things actually are, he said, because the polls are hard to reliably trust and coverage highlights the worst ones, when what is reported are averages. His conclusion cut both ways.

“This is within the grasp of Republicans to win if they do the right things.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

The right things are the ones he had listed throughout: engage the American people, spend the money, deliver a clear message. Trump has said he will be on the road a lot, and rallies generate energy — if it is converted into people actually working to turn out voters. Anyone who watches a cable analyst and takes it as confidence that the midterm curse breaks itself, without the hard work of the next 54 or so days, will be disappointed.

Then came the clip of President Trump saying he has close to $1 billion in his super PAC and is allocating probably $400 to $500 million to the midterms, because he does not want to lose the country. Pfaff agreed it could turn things around — with one condition on how it is spent.

“You don’t emphasize only Donald Trump in those campaign messages. You’ve got to highlight that candidate and show them grabbing on to the Trump agenda and deciding that they want to see it fulfilled.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

Iran, Ukraine, and the Canada Trade Fight

The host raised Iran, noting that US forces had struck Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island the previous night, and asked whether the convention stage needed a clear message on it. Pfaff said he would think so, and that it is a hard one. His read is that the country is pretty far down the road toward closing the Iran situation. A deal to stop the Ukraine war would be more dramatic still, because Iran connects into it and would have nowhere to go without it. He called that a heavy lift and said he is not sure Putin wants to hand Donald Trump that before an election. Foreign leaders know when American elections are, and if they want to make a difference, they will try.

It could resolve three ways before November, in his list: everything quiets down, Iran does something that angers everyone, or Scott Bessent’s effort to shut down Iran’s finances takes hold. It has to happen quickly, because votes are already going out and a few states send ballots 60 days ahead of the election — which Pfaff called absurd and tied to the Save America Act.

On Canada, the program reported new Section 338 bans and 50% tariffs on a long list of Canadian goods. Pfaff put the motive on the Canadian prime minister.

“Mark Carney wants to take out Donald Trump because he believes in this crappy world order that we’ve been living under.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

He comes from a libertarian perspective, he said, and does not believe there is any thriving in a high-tariff way of doing things; what he wants is one-on-one agreements where the United States sets the standard and the terms are fair and reciprocal. But Canada is taking these actions too, and Carney lied — walking away from talks that had a better deal on the table than anything Canada has ever had. The real harm falls on Canada, and Pfaff supports taking it on because it has to be fixed for the long term.

Pfaff closed on Texas: beating Talarico is not an easy win, but he thinks Paxton pulls it out the way Ted Cruz did against Beto O’Rourke.

Key Takeaways

1. The midterm curse has a money pattern – In 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 the party that spent the most money won. Republicans kept Congress in 2010 and 2014, lost it in 2018 when Democrats outspent them, and won it back in 2022.
2. The spending is now on the Republican side – Nearly $50 million in new battleground ads from the MAGA Inc.-backed No Going Back PAC, plus the $400 to $500 million President Trump says he is allocating from his super PAC.
3. Attack ads alone do not win it – The DSA story matters, but candidates have to connect the election to a confirmed, asserted effort to fulfill the MAGA agenda, because that is what people voted for in 2024.
4. The record is the message – $42 billion in Medicare fraud already stopped out of roughly $100 billion stolen a year, DOGE still running, and a 70% reduction in murder. Show it, do not just assert it.
5. The polls may be understating Republicans again – A two-to-four-point Senate error puts Republicans at 53 seats and a three-point House error holds the majority — but not a reason, Pfaff says, to skip the hard work of the next 54 days.
6. Foreign leaders are watching the calendar – Carney walked away from a better-than-ever trade deal knowing the election situation, and Pfaff is not sure Putin wants to hand Trump a Ukraine deal before November.

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About The Conservative Caucus:
The Conservative Caucus is a grassroots public policy action organization, formed in 1974. Headed by President Jim Pfaff, the Caucus is committed to advancing free enterprise, limited government, and traditional values.

Originally broadcast Sep 9, 2026 on Worldview Tube — Washington Report, live from The Conservative Caucus media suite at the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas.