On The Vicki McKenna Show on October 16, 2026, host Vicki McKenna told Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff she does not feel the Democrats have the mojo for a blue wave. Polling, she said, shows a slight Democrat move and a Republican move starting to emerge, and Texas starting to break out.
She called the worst case a blue trickle that might keep the Senate and lose the House, with Donald Trump propping Republicans up. Pfaff’s answer stayed on local races, and on Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin as the bellwether.
No Mojo, and Texas Starting to Break Out
McKenna opened on polling and turnout models, and on Democrats scrambling to hide their radicalism. She said she does not trust the polls blindly, but they say something: a slight Democrat move very recently, and a Republican move now starting to emerge, with Texas starting to break out.
She does not see a blue wave. “I do see maybe a blue trickle at worst,” she said, and that might mean Republicans keep the Senate and lose the House. She still thinks Republicans are in the game, “almost in spite of themselves,” because Donald Trump is helping prop them up. Democrats, she said, have failed to make the midterms a referendum on Trump, and she credited the midterm convention and sending Marco Rubio out to speak about what the country is about.
All Politics Is Still Local
Pfaff said the constant effort to punch Trump is not pulling Republicans down, because these are individual races.
I think the president’s messaging has been excellent.
“the biggest— basic rule of politics is that all politics is local still does matter.” he said. That frame covered the data-center fights. Tom Tiffany has had to deal with the issue in Wisconsin, and Pfaff said he has done it perfectly. Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted are dealing with the same fight in Ohio, and Pfaff said those local fights are helping Republicans.
The Talarico situation, he said, is turning against Talarico. At a CNN town hall, he was nudged to talk like a conservative and tried, and it failed. “Still, I’m not saying everything’s in the bank, but I’m not highly discouraged at the moment.” Then he added the tell: “You’ve got Carville telling Democrats to lie.”
Crowley Cemented, Tiffany on the Wedge
McKenna said people see through a late shift, whether from El Sayed, Talarico, or David Crowley, even with the media trying to button up how radical Crowley is. In Wisconsin, she said, the more money, ads, literature, and digital work Tiffany puts up, the more people learn about Crowley and the less they like him. She called his digital work excellent.
She said Crowley is stuck between a promise to big tech, including sales-tax exemptions that tick people off, and a promise to the renewable interests Joe Biden funded through the Green New Deal. That leaves him defending data-center breaks and expensive wind and solar. She called the data-center fight the wedge of the campaign and said Tiffany has been exceptional on it, and that he would possibly be the best governor Wisconsin has had.
The Sane One, and a Bellwether if It Happens
Pfaff put Scott Walker in that company and called Walker a close second. If Tiffany can get this, and Pfaff thinks he is pulling it out, “He does seem like the sane one in the room.” A lot of Republicans around the country do too, he said, even where it is not playing out the same way. He is not a big fan of Mike Rogers, but he thinks Rogers is handling El-Sayed well.
Tom Tiffany winning the governor’s race there is going, in my opinion, to be a bellwether if it happens.
Wisconsin polls close an hour earlier on average than Eastern time, he said, so a Tiffany win would already be telling the country something. If Michigan goes the same way, he called it a good night, and then the House still has to play out. Tiffany has been fabulous since the nomination. Pfaff said he is used to clenching because statewide Republican campaigns made mistakes and lost after the last time Scott Walker ran. He is not seeing that here.
Encouraging Absentee Numbers, Then Two Lessons
McKenna said the enthusiasm gap is showing up in returned mail absentee ballots in Wisconsin: Dane County down 27 percent and Milwaukee County down 15 to 17 percent, bread and butter for Democrats. She noted Democrats are winning that early-vote battle in some other states.
Pfaff said he was hearing her numbers and called them very encouraging, and more proof that politics is local. At the end, he said, voters will learn two major things, starting with what Americans really think about Democrats.
“David Crowley epitomizes the problems that Democrats have,” he said, because they are evasive, they lie, or they twist the truth. Tiffany, by contrast, stays consistent, keeps a clear message, and does not back off when challenged. Polling seems to show Democrats excited to vote, but Pfaff does not think anyone yet understands where Republicans are or what they will do. He expects Senate surprises on November 3rd, potentially in New Hampshire or Minnesota, that would keep Democrats from claiming a big win. If they take the House and try to take down Donald Trump, he said, they look even more foolish in 2028.
“I don’t think Democrats recognize what the Americans really think about them,” he said. The night can still be a net positive even if Democrats eke out a House victory. “But what if they eke out a House victory and at the same time Mike Rogers wins in Michigan and Tom Tiffany wins in Wisconsin?”
Gerrymandering Was a Democrat Thing
McKenna had argued that even a bare Democratic House, on the order of a flip of 5 to 7 seats, would show Democrats twisting the map through the census and through gerrymandering. Pfaff took that up as his own point.
Remember, gerrymandering was a Democrat thing.
Republicans did it from time to time, he said, but not the way Democrats have. “Just look over at Illinois. It’s the worst of all.” A thin Democratic gain would also show Donald Trump was right to tell states to get into their districts and counter it. Pfaff said he will keep talking about that. Republicans who got scared out of doing it ahead of these midterms may learn a hard lesson, and he doubts they double down on that mistake for the next two more years. He closed the caution where he started it: “I don’t want to get people’s hopes up.”
Key Takeaways
- No blue wave: McKenna said she sees no Democrat mojo and, at worst, a blue trickle, with Texas starting to break out.
- Politics is local: Pfaff said Trump’s messaging has been excellent and that punching Trump is not deciding individual races.
- The Wisconsin wedge: He said Tiffany handled the data-center issue perfectly, while McKenna said Crowley is cemented to big tech and Green New Deal constituencies.
- A bellwether: Pfaff said a Tiffany win would be a bellwether, and that Tiffany seems like the sane one in the room.
- A net-positive night: He said the night can still be a net positive if Democrats only eke out the House while Rogers wins Michigan and Tiffany wins Wisconsin.
- Maps: He said gerrymandering was a Democrat thing, Illinois the worst of all, and that Trump was right to push states to counter it.
Peter J. Thomas is a veteran conservative political strategist and seasoned policy expert dedicated to upholding the principles of the Constitution and democracy. As a founder and the chairman of the Conservative Caucus, he has played a pivotal role in promoting and shaping the conservative agenda across the nation for over half a century.