The Maine Senate Race and Trump’s Midterm Blitz: Jim Pfaff on Stinchfield | Sep 30, 2026
Published: September 30, 2026
Network: Real America’s Voice
Analysis: Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff
Grant Stinchfield brought Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff into his September 30, 2026 show on Real America’s Voice with Maine already on the table. Pfaff made his call in the Maine Senate race: Susan Collins pulls it out again, because the one problem she does not have is running a tough campaign in Maine. Stinchfield then played a clip of Texas Democrat James Talarico on trans athletes and a clip of President Trump promising to campaign wherever Republicans are running, and asked whether Trump can make the difference. The midterms were 34 days away.
Topics Covered
- The Maine Senate Race: Why Collins Pulls It Out
- Troy Jackson’s Path in the Maine Senate Race Requires a Wave
- Ken Paxton, James Talarico and the Trans Athlete Clip
- Trump on the Road: 30 Appearances Before Election Day
- Key Takeaways
The Maine Senate Race: Why Collins Pulls It Out
Stinchfield had already given his read on a candidate in the race, and Pfaff agreed. People down in Portsmouth are going to kind of like him, Pfaff said, but the rest of the state does not. “He’s just not an attractive candidate,” Pfaff said. Then he turned to the incumbent.
“Susan Collins, from my perspective, has a few problems, but the one problem she doesn’t have is running a tough campaign in Maine. And she has done that over and over again. And I think she’s going to be able to pull it out at the end of the day.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
Collins has a few problems from his perspective, but his case in the Maine Senate race rests on her record as a campaigner: she has run tough campaigns in Maine over and over again, and he thinks that will let her pull it out at the end of the day.
Stinchfield said “this guy’s a little nutty” and said Mainers have gotten a little nuttier because of the Boston crowd moving in, but by and large they are going to reject “this lefty crap.” Pfaff agreed and added a point about geography. Even up the coast, where newcomers have moved in, “you still have typical Mainers up there.”
Troy Jackson’s Path in the Maine Senate Race Requires a Wave
Pfaff then named Troy Jackson and laid out the scenario in which Jackson has a path.
“I see Maine going Susan Collins’ way. I could be wrong. There is a path for Troy Jackson, but that’s if there’s a wave. And I think based on the numbers we’re seeing right now, I don’t see a wave. And that’s why I have some confidence she’ll pull it out.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
The forecast is conditional, and Pfaff stated the condition plainly. Jackson’s path depends on a wave, and based on the numbers right now, Pfaff does not see one. He allowed that he could be wrong; what he has is some confidence that Collins pulls out the Maine Senate race. Pfaff has walked through the wider map on this network before, in his earlier Real America’s Voice look at the 2026 Senate map and the Kansas sleeper.
The Host’s Bet on the Maine Senate Race
Stinchfield said he has put his money where his mouth is. A big supporter of Kalshi, he told viewers to put some money on Susan Collins, which he called a good bet. His other good bet, he said, is Ken Paxton in Texas.
Ken Paxton, James Talarico and the Trans Athlete Clip
In Texas, Ken Paxton is running against Democrat James Talarico, whom Stinchfield called “just plain weird.” He played a clip of Talarico.
“The way I fought for trans kids in the legislature is how I will fight for the U.S. Senate. And my position hasn’t changed. I still think these should be local decisions, sport by sport, athlete by athlete.”
— James Talarico, in a clip played on Stinchfield
Stinchfield’s translation: leave it to the local community whether men play sports with women, which he called neither a good position nor a popular one. Pfaff said the clips of Talarico are pretty stringent, most people in Texas should not be surprised he hadn’t changed his position, and those clips should be played over and over again.
“If it’s going to be about trans in Texas, then Ken Paxton is going to do pretty well. If it’s not about that and somehow the gas prices or whatever is what everyone’s talking about, then it’ll be closer. But I do not see Texas going with James Talarico. It’s just not there as far as I can tell.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
The Texas call has the same shape as his Maine Senate race call. The subject of the campaign sets the margin: trans issues favor Paxton, gas prices tighten it, and the winner he expects does not change. Stinchfield, who said his show broadcasts from Texas, that he has been there 25 years and that he knows Paxton well, acknowledged Paxton has some issues with some of the conservative women there, but said he believes Paxton will pull it out and Texas will reject Talarico.
Trump on the Road: 30 Appearances Before Election Day
Stinchfield’s last topic was President Trump, who he said will have a big effect on a lot of races. He played a clip of Trump speaking to Republican candidates.
“Whether you’re a good president or a great president, you lose the midterms. We’re going to turn that around because there’s no reason for it.”
— President Donald Trump, in a clip played on Stinchfield
Trump told the candidates he will be in every one of their states and cities, and that he is particularly interested in Congress and the Senate. Stinchfield said Trump has something like 30 appearances scheduled between now and Election Day. Pfaff has addressed that historical pattern before in his Worldview Tube analysis of beating the midterm curse. Asked whether Trump can make a difference, he answered, “I think he can.”
“I think he has to be added into the mix of what’s being discussed going into November to help Republicans get over the top.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
He paired that with a criticism of his own party: “Let’s be honest, sadly, there are a lot of Republicans that are really bad at messaging about what Donald Trump has done. But I think that they’re starting to get that message.”
Pfaff’s evidence was the recent Harvard-Harris poll Stinchfield had pointed to earlier, which Pfaff said has it even. Pfaff said he looked up its methodology: the pollsters anchored it enough to 2024 that they do not forget there could be a similar electorate, and the poll tracks with 2024. He thinks that electorate is coming out.
“If he’s out there on the road, he’s going to bring those people out. And that poll favors Republicans in a tremendous way.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus
The chain runs in order: a poll anchored to a 2024-style electorate, a president on the road bringing those people out, and a poll that, in Pfaff’s words, favors Republicans in a tremendous way. Stinchfield’s response: “Yeah, I think you’re right.” He disagreed only on scope. Many Republicans have a hard time messaging anything, not just what President Trump has done, he said, and they ought to get in touch with The Conservative Caucus.
Key Takeaways
- Collins wins Maine again – Pfaff’s call in the Maine Senate race rests on Susan Collins running tough campaigns in Maine over and over again.
- Troy Jackson needs a wave – Pfaff sees a path for the Democrat in the Maine Senate race only in a wave, and the numbers right now do not show one.
- Texas does not go to Talarico – Trans issues help Ken Paxton; gas prices make it closer. Either way, Pfaff does not see Texas going with James Talarico.
- Trump has to be in the mix – With something like 30 appearances scheduled before Election Day, by Stinchfield’s count, Pfaff says Trump can help Republicans get over the top.
- Republicans are learning to message the record – Sadly, a lot of Republicans are really bad at messaging what Trump has done, Pfaff says, but they are starting to get that message, and the Harvard-Harris poll favors Republicans in a tremendous way.
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Originally broadcast Sep 30, 2026 on Stinchfield on Real America’s Voice with Grant Stinchfield.
Peter J. Thomas is a veteran conservative political strategist and seasoned policy expert dedicated to upholding the principles of the Constitution and democracy. As a founder and the chairman of the Conservative Caucus, he has played a pivotal role in promoting and shaping the conservative agenda across the nation for over half a century.