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60 Open Seats and an Unpredictable House: Jim Pfaff with John Gizzi at the RNC Midterm Convention | Sep 10, 2026

Published: September 10, 2026
Network: TCC Live — RNC Midterm Convention coverage, Dallas
Analysis: Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff

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John Gizzi has been reporting on American politics for 47 years, and in 1994 he was the first journalist to forecast the Republican capture of the House and the Senate. On September 10, 2026, at the TCC booth at the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas, Conservative Caucus President Jim Pfaff asked him to do it again for November. Gizzi gave a straight answer on the Senate — the odds now favor it staying just as it is — and then declined to call the House, for one reason with a number attached: 60 open seats, the second highest exodus of sitting members of Congress in the history of House elections. Also in the conversation: why this first-ever midterm convention matters to state party leaders, what the spending record says about off-year elections, and the two things to watch in the 53 days left.

Topics Covered

• 47 Years, From Human Events to Newsmax
• The First Midterm Convention Either Party Has Held
• The Senate Map: Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, New Hampshire
• 60 Open Seats and the Second Highest Exodus in House History
• The Money Test and the Crypto Wild Card
• What to Watch in 53 Days: Foreign Policy and the Pump
• Key Takeaways

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47 Years, From Human Events to Newsmax

Pfaff opened by asking his friend of decades for the quick version of his career. Gizzi started as a young man at Human Events, the National Conservative Weekly and Ronald Reagan’s favorite publication, and that job gave him front row seating with the modern conservative movement. His editors were Tom Winter and Allan Ryskind, the longtime owners of the paper. Howard Phillips — Pfaff’s predecessor at The Conservative Caucus — became a mentor and a close friend.

“I had the great pleasure, or good luck, of forecasting the Republican capture of the House and Senate in 1994. I was the first journalist to do that, and the Gingrich revolution I saw in the making that year.”
— John Gizzi, Chief Political Columnist, Newsmax

Since then he has covered President Trump and watched Congress go from Republican to Democratic control and back. For the last 13 years he has been with Newsmax in television, print and online. Pfaff called him the insider’s insider, and made the point that Human Events in Gizzi’s day was not a niche publication — it was dominant inside the conservative movement and had a large readership outside it.

The First Midterm Convention Either Party Has Held

Pfaff noted that Gizzi has covered a great many national conventions in presidential years, and that this is the very first midterm convention for either party. Democrats attempted one decades back and never followed through. Gizzi explained why that attempt failed in the 1970s: the Democrats’ midterm gatherings kept reopening matters that had historically been settled quadrennially — party rules, and how a president is nominated.

Anyone who was at one convention, he said, knew how the game would be played at the next one. Democrats began to change that by adding quotas and insisting on primaries instead of state party conventions and caucuses. Pfaff added the superdelegates, which, as the two agreed, the party has finally put to the grave. Gizzi’s guess on Dallas is that it is a good thing if for no other reason than that it does not touch anything to do with the governance of the Republican Party. It is a rally.

“In terms of rallying the base, it will. And in terms of getting people together from the different state political parties, it’s very valuable.”
— John Gizzi, Chief Political Columnist, Newsmax

Gizzi used to cover Republican National Committee meetings several times a year and got to know the state party chairmen and national committee people, which is how he read the party’s direction from its leadership locally. That roster has turned over.

“In the last year, 41% of the 166 RNC members have been replaced, retired, or deposed. So I’ve got to learn some new players to chart the party’s direction, and I’m meeting them here.”
— John Gizzi, Chief Political Columnist, Newsmax

The message from the stage, he said, is clear: the base for Trump and the conservative movement has to turn out in an off year. TCC previewed the whole operation in our coverage of the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas.

The Senate Map: Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, New Hampshire

Pfaff laid out his own read before asking for Gizzi’s: when he looks at the polling broadly there are a couple of things that seem bad, but the trends do not seem to be going away from Republicans, and Democrats are at their lowest approval in modern polling, or at least real close to it. Gizzi began with a caveat. Labor Day was a week ago, and it is difficult, if not impossible, to say how the stock market will look, what gasoline or groceries will cost, or where the international turbulence settles. That is nearly two months away and difficult to forecast.

“I think the odds now favor the Senate staying just as it is.”
— John Gizzi, Chief Political Columnist, Newsmax

Then he went state by state. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown is up against appointed Senator Jon Husted. In North Carolina, the president went out of his way to speak on behalf of Republican candidate Mike Whatley, but Gizzi checked the polls on the way to the booth and former Democratic governor Roy Cooper still has a lead. In Michigan, Mike Rogers — who lost the closest Senate race in that state’s history — is back, facing Abdul El-Sayed, and Jewish voters who historically vote Democrat are not only coming over to Rogers but giving him a significant amount of money. In New Hampshire, former senator John Sununu, the brother and son of former governors, is the Republican nominee for an open seat against Congressman Chris Pappas, and the polls show it dead even. TCC walked through the same map in our look at the November battleground races that decide election night.

60 Open Seats and the Second Highest Exodus in House History

On the House, Gizzi said he would take what Pfaff might consider a cowardly way out, and then gave the number that justifies it.

“There are 60 open seats where incumbents retired, resigned, sought another office, or died. And that is the second highest exodus of sitting members of Congress in the history of House elections.”
— John Gizzi, Chief Political Columnist, Newsmax

The only cycle with more was 1992, at 62. Gizzi covered it, and he says the results were unpredictable: for only the second time in the 20th century, the party that lost the White House gained seats in the House of Representatives. That is the precedent he carries into the current map, and why 60 open seats is the number he will not forecast around.

“With all those open seats, it’s very difficult to say which will go one way and which will go another, and whether that determines control of the House.”
— John Gizzi, Chief Political Columnist, Newsmax

His example was Michigan. Mike Bouchard, an Army veteran and the son of a popular Oakland County sheriff of the same name, addressed the convention the night before and is running in Oakland County, and people point out that he probably has a better chance of putting that seat in the Republican column than two-term incumbent John James, who always had close races and is now running for governor.

Pfaff rejected the “cowardly” framing and named the mechanism underneath it. Incumbency is the single most reliable predictor in House races, and 60 open seats removes it from 60 contests at once.

“The incumbency factor gets thrown out of the water suddenly when you got 60 new people.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

The Money Test and the Crypto Wild Card

Pfaff brought a pattern of his own to the table, one TCC has tracked through four cycles.

“In 2010, ’14, ’18, and ’22, all off-year elections, the party that spent the most money won or kept the legislature.”
— Jim Pfaff, President, The Conservative Caucus

The only one of those four in which Democrats spent more was 2018, and they took the House. Unless someone holds back the money that is out there, Pfaff said, Republicans are going to overwhelmingly outspend Democrats this year. Gizzi agreed the pattern has held historically, and then added the two forces that could bend it.

“I would not underestimate some in the business community, notably the hedge fund community, coming over to the Democratic side in big amounts to help them out. On the other hand, the new cryptocurrency and Bitcoin community, which was nonexistent 10 years ago, is a force now.”
— John Gizzi, Chief Political Columnist, Newsmax

Crypto money does not sort neatly by party, and Gizzi says people in that community tell him directly that they are bipartisan. His example: Congressman Jonathan Jackson of Chicago, a Democrat and the son of the late Jesse Jackson, is a strong supporter of cryptocurrency and a major beneficiary of Fairshake. Pfaff’s summary was that Fairshake goes to both sides of the aisle. A spending advantage is not a spending monopoly, and in a year with 60 open seats the money can arrive on either side of any one of them.

What to Watch in 53 Days: Foreign Policy and the Pump

Pfaff asked for a close: the one or two things people should watch over the next 53 days to get a sense of the outcome. Gizzi named foreign policy first — specifically a solution to the Russo-Ukrainian War before the election, which he called very possible although uncertain, and a final end to the war in Iran. There have been reports the president is ready to proclaim victory, stop the bombing, and focus on oil revenue in this country. Gizzi cited General David Petraeus, who recently remarked that new oil likely to come from Venezuela, combined with oil from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, would more than compensate for the oil held up at the Strait of Hormuz.

The second thing to watch is the number every voter sees without being told to look. Gizzi described a breakfast with his friend Dan Eberhart, a man in the energy business and a major Republican donor, who looked out the hotel window at the price per gallon on the sign across the street and said that if that sign is unchanged in October, “it’s gonna hurt my convictions for Republicans.” Then Gizzi put a limit on the whole exercise.

“Forewarned is forearmed, but in the famous words of that great philosopher Casey Stengel, never make predictions, especially about the future.”
— John Gizzi, Chief Political Columnist, Newsmax

Pfaff closed by calling the event a history-book election and thanking Gizzi for coming into the suite, with a podcast to follow. Gizzi’s last word was for his host, quoting Ralph Waldo Emerson: the only way to have a friend is to be one.

Key Takeaways

1. 60 open seats make the House unforecastable – Incumbents retired, resigned, sought another office or died in 60 districts, the second highest exodus of sitting members in the history of House elections, behind 62 in 1992.
2. 1992 is the precedent that should worry both parties – The last time open seats ran this high, the party that lost the White House gained House seats, only the second time that happened in the 20th century.
3. The Senate looks like it stays where it is – Gizzi’s read, with Sherrod Brown against Jon Husted in Ohio, Roy Cooper still leading Mike Whatley in North Carolina, Mike Rogers drawing Jewish voters and their money against Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, and Sununu and Pappas dead even in New Hampshire.
4. The spending record favors Republicans, with two caveats – In 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 the bigger-spending party won or kept the legislature, but Gizzi would not underestimate hedge fund money moving to Democrats, and crypto money is openly bipartisan.
5. A midterm convention is worth holding because it is only a rally – Gizzi’s guess is that it is a good thing for no other reason than that it does not reopen party governance the way the Democrats’ 1970s attempts did, and with 41% of the 166 RNC members replaced, retired or deposed in the last year, it is where the new state party leadership gets met.
6. Watch foreign policy and the price at the pump – A Russo-Ukrainian settlement, a declared end to the bombing in Iran, and what the gas station sign says in October, which one major Republican donor told Gizzi would hurt his convictions for Republicans.

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About The Conservative Caucus:
The Conservative Caucus is a grassroots public policy action organization, formed in 1974. Headed by President Jim Pfaff, the Caucus is committed to advancing free enterprise, limited government, and traditional values.

Originally broadcast Sep 10, 2026 live from The Conservative Caucus media suite at the 2026 RNC Midterm Convention, Dallas.